Three Numbers: a sample issue

Subject: Gas is $1.26 a gallon higher than a year ago

Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel on Friday, Oct 16, its highest close since May 19, and touched $110 during the day. You can't buy a barrel, so here's what that price looks like at the pump and in your paycheck.

1. Gas: +$1.26 a gallon vs a year ago

+$1.26

On Oct 19, AAA's national average for regular was $4.2953 a gallon. A year earlier it was $3.0362. That's $1.26 more per gallon, or about $19 more every time you fill a 15-gallon tank (our math, for illustration).

Gas also drove the latest inflation print. In September the gasoline index rose 9.1% in one month and 34.2% over the year, and BLS said gasoline accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase.

Sources: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge, Oct 19, 2026 · BLS CPI, September 2026, released Oct 14

2. Diesel: $6.32 a gallon

$6.32

AAA's national diesel average was $6.3187 on Oct 19. A year earlier it was $3.6308, so diesel now costs about 74% more (our math). The record is $6.5276, set Sept 22. EIA's weekly survey was close: $6.276 for the week of Oct 19, up 9.7¢ from the week before.

You may never buy diesel, but you pay for it anyway. It runs the trucks that stock grocery stores, plus farm equipment and freight. Heating oil comes from the same family of fuels, and in the September CPI fuel oil was up 74.2% from a year earlier. Distillate stocks (diesel plus heating oil) were 104.3 million barrels in the week ended Oct 16, still 9.7% below a year earlier going into heating season.

Sources: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge, Oct 19 · EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, released Oct 20 · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week ended Oct 16 · BLS CPI, September 2026

3. Real hourly pay: −0.7% vs a year ago

−0.7%

Average hourly pay rose 3.0% over the year, to $37.81. Prices rose 3.7%. After inflation, real average hourly earnings were down 0.7% from a year earlier, and down 0.5% from August. A raise in line with the average still buys less than it did a year ago, and energy is a big part of why: the energy index was up 20.4%.

Sources: BLS Employment Situation, September 2026, released Oct 2 · BLS Real Earnings, released Oct 14 · BLS CPI, released Oct 14

What to watch: Wed Oct 28, 2 PM ET

The Fed meets Oct 27 and 28. The rate decision is due at 2:00 PM ET on the 28th and the press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET. A rate move can't lower an oil price set by trouble around the Strait of Hormuz and refinery outages. Listen for how the Fed describes inflation and energy. On Oct 8, Governor Christopher Waller said, "For at least the near term, policy will be focused on the inflation side of our mandate."

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar · Gov. Waller speech, Oct 8, 2026

Watch next

Brent Hit $109.86. What It Means for Inflation: the full oil breakdown, from the barrel to your grocery bill. Every source is on the source page.

Education only, not financial advice.